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Estimating notes: The estimate of the orchards

Estimating notes: The estimate of the orchards


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Orchard estimates - General

In the end, orchards are defined as all fruit tree crops, regardless of their destination, direct consumption or the transformation of the product obtained. The arboreal crops are characterized by a long-lasting productive shift. In the cycle we distinguish four phases:

  • Planting phase: it is a negative income phase with a prevalence of expenses over production;
  • Production increase phase (youth): it is an increasing positive income phase with products that exceed expenses and increase year by year.
  • Production consistency (maturity) phase: it is an almost constant positive income phase, the highest in the cycle.
  • Production decrease phase (old age): it is a phase characterized by positive decreasing income in which products and expenses tend to approach.

If the plants of an entire orchard are of the same age (peer orchard), the total net income will have that of a single plant. If the plants are of different ages, each one has an equal number of specimens and the older ones are replaced every year (regularly uneven orchard), the annual net income remains constant and likewise the consistency of the orchard remains.
The orchards can be in promiscuous culture (i.e. associated with herbaceous crops) or specialized (consisting of plants of the same species).
The estimation questions relating to the peer specialized orchards are: the estimate of the bare land value, that of the orchard value (complex of land and trees), that of the above-ground value (trees only) and the determination of the age of the maximum profit.

Estimate of the bare earth value Vo

By bare soil of an orchard we mean the soil without trees. It is rare that the bare earth value is itself the ultimate object of the estimate. The knowledge of this value is instead indispensable for estimating the value of a peer orchard in an intermediate year of the cycle; it is then one of the terms from which the above-ground value derives.
There synthetic estimate it is carried out with the direct comparison of the soil to be estimated with others similar for extrinsic and intrinsic characteristics, and is resolved with our procedure. The technical parameter most commonly used is the surface.
There analytical estimate consists of the capitalization of unlimited postponed multi-year net income (Rp = Sum of the products of the entire cycle - Sum of the expenses of the entire cycle):

Vo = Rp / (q ^ n - 1)

where n is the cycle duration.

This formula is rationally valid as it is difficult to apply in practice for numerous reasons of uncertainty in obtaining the necessary data (for these reasons it is not used in the estimative practice):
- the duration of the production cycle;
- the series of products and expanses;
- the capitalization test.
the latter should result from the ratio between the sum of the average annual incomes of similar orchards and the sum of the prices of the respective bare lands. Even knowing these prices, the problem of how to determine the average annual incomes would remain, since their calculation would require prior knowledge of the same essay to be determined. The rate must therefore be constructed taking into account the greater risk of capital invested in an orchard compared to other forms of land investment. The capitalization rate will certainly be higher than that on average for rustic funds, but the extent of the increase is uncertain. The error that is made in the calculation of Vo with an inadequate test can be large, the greater the longer the production cycle, and it can lead to results that are not very close to reality.

Estimate of the orchard value Vm

The orchard value can be estimated with a synthetic or analytical procedure. The synthetic estimate is resolved with direct comparison of the orchard to be estimated with others of known similar price for all the characteristics relating to the soil and topsoil. It is easy to understand how the chances of finding comparison terms are quite small even in the presence of an active market. All that is left is to resort to analytical estimation. The value of a peer orchard at an intermediate point in its production cycle it can be estimated with the procedure based on past incomes (or based on cost) or on future incomes. The procedure based on fictitious cycles, which presents the same difficulties as the analytical estimate of Vo, should be excluded.

Vm based on past incomes:

Vm based on future income:

In the estimation practice, the synthetic procedure is often used to estimate the bare earth value and the analytical one to estimate the orchard value (soil plus ground).

Value of the top Vs

It is a complementary value obtainable by difference between the value of the orchard and that of the bare earth: Vs = Vm - Vo

Dividing the value of the topsoil by the number of tree plants present in the orchard gives the value of a plant. Often, this procedure is followed to assess the damage the fund has suffered following the destruction of some plants.

Search for the age of maximum profit

The age of maximum profit is defined as the age at which a contemporary orchard should be renewed to obtain the maximum average annual income, which corresponds to the maximum value of the bare land.
The research can take place synthetically or analytically. The synthetic procedure is comparative, ie it consists in detecting in the area the age at which similar orchards are renewed on average. Analytical research presupposes knowledge of the income levels attributable to the various phases of the production cycle. By choosing the analytical procedure, we proceed for a number of times by searching for the corresponding Vo for different durations of the cycle. That duration, which corresponds to the maximum Vo, is the age of the gain. It will probably be located in the income reduction station.
Starting from the year in which incomes decrease, a first hypothetical cycle duration is established and on the basis of this the Vo is determined. Then, the one-year cycle duration is increased and the Vo is calculated again. we proceed as long as the new Vo is greater than the previous one. the search is interrupted when the Vo shows a tendency to decrease with increasing cycle duration. Thus the maximum Vo is identified, which corresponds, as has been said, to the age of the maximum gain.

Pescheto in the Bolognese plain


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